TR Monitor

HOW EM LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LOVE HIGHER U.S. RATES

David Hauner, strategist, BofA ML, June 11

We expect EM to continue to trade well into summer on the back of rangebound U.S. rates and D►Y and a narrowing growth performance gap versus the U.S. during the second half of the year (EMF► at a fork in the road). However, it is worth noting that EM data surprises are already very high: from the temporary low in March, they have almost re-climbed to the December 2020 peak which was the highest reading in 20 years. Activity surprises are clearly mean-reverting, and a peak in the summer does not bode well for asset prices in the autumn. To be clear, we are more concerned about a peak in the global re-opening momentum in the autumn than about the Fed starting their taper discussion. It really shouldn’t be a surprise.

WEEK IN BRIEF

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2021-06-14T07:00:00.0000000Z

2021-06-14T07:00:00.0000000Z

https://trmonitor.pressreader.com/article/281638193150919

NASIL BIR EKONOMI MEDYA HABER BASIN A.S. (Turkey)